The election in the USA of a President with African roots sparked off celebrations across the continent. Kenya, the historic home of the Obama clan declared a public holiday and elsewhere elation mixed with jubilation. There was a clear sense of a transatlantic bond in celebrating with those in the black Diaspora on this historically symbolic occasion.
Euphoria has a short shelf live though and eventually it will fade away to be replaced by a hard dose of reality and with reality comes the question what does an Obama Presidency really mean for Africa?
Well a former British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan when asked what the greatest challenge to a statesman was, he responded “Events my dear boy, events” and so it may prove with the Obama Presidency preceded as it has been by one of the most severe global economic downturns in recent times. Obama’s immediate focus is undoubtedly the American economy and beyond that the issues of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan loom large.
Africa by contrast is a remote policy consideration. While it may be in the background we can still look to what his stance on African issues while in the Senate and on the campaign trail to see what direction his administration would take should they choose to address any issues related to Africa
On Darfur Obama has publicly recognised the situation as genocide called for oil sanctions and advocated the USA provides logistics and support to a multinational peace keeping force.
On the fight against AIDS the Obama administration is set to reverse existing American policy that emphasised abstinence and monogamy and advocate the use of condoms as the primary weapon in the fight against AIDS. This change in policy will certainly raise concerns in Uganda and Rwanda where abstinence has been inculcated in the fight against AIDs.
However on many African issues the Obama administration will not stray far from the path already beaten out by the outgoing Bush Administration. The Millennium Challenge will stay in place, the deployment AFRICOM Military command will carry on and probably most significantly the huge subsidies that are paid to American farmers will continue and in doing so impoverish millions of African farmers.
On the less tangible but equally important political front the elevation of a minority to the most powerful political post in America is not lost on the African political classes. Obama comes with considerable moral ammunition and should he join the fight for transparent political processes in Africa and it would be hard to dismiss him as having a racist or colonialist agenda.
Overall expect no significant change in America’s African policy in the short term, however if the Obama administration successfully withers the global economic storm things may change.